UTAH

Trump – 865k (58.13%)
Biden – 560k (37.65%)

UT is one of hardest to gage, thanks to poor record keeping (UT registers by party, but not available across counties), the presence of a serious 3rd party challenge in 2016, and Romney’s home state skew. Most accurate comps go back to 2008.

I think UT was a target by central planners – JB has 45k more than Trump ’16; perhaps they anticipated the same 3rd party behavior. DT is 125k past Romney ’12, but Biden’s gains are 250k from Clinton, when previous high gain was Obama ’08 with 87k. Nearly all third party throwaways came from GOP in 2016.

Red – Obviously Ugly (5)
Yellow – Suspect/Likely Fraud (8)
Green – Clean (16)

Estimates for excess votes based on pop. growth/trends:
Salt Lake – 50k
Utah – 30k
Davis – 20k
Weber – 9k
Washington – 7k

I estimate 131k excess votes. If accurate, and counting ONLY excess JB vote growth, DT should have won this state about 63.7% to 31.6%, or by 32.1%. JB gain in SLC was 114k, previous high was 31k (Obama ’08).