DELAWARE

Biden – 296,268 (58.7%)
Trump – 200,603 (39.8%)

Red – Rampant
Yellow – Likely/Suspect

Estimating 27k excess votes on a lenient evaluation. We will have a house effect for Biden of at least a few points in his home state.

Party reg moved slightly D in Kent, which Trump flipped in 2016. That is tagged yellow (5k excess) – acknowledging slight D gain – flagging for strong Trump growth and massive Biden gain.

New Castle is the main driver for Dem power in DE; has declined in raw Dem votes since Obama’s first run; Biden up 16k over Obama ’08, 32k over Clinton. Flagged yellow for 10k excess.

Sussex is 2.7% more GOP than it was in 2016 registration, when Trump blew it out. This is a MAGA county. Trump gained another 9k, only this time instead of Dem column staying the same, Biden gained 17k, well against reg trends and above any reasonable expectation for home state advantage. Flagged red, 12k excess.

Trump’s margin of loss would have been 14.3%, or 56.4% to 42.1%, a margin of 69k votes.